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Used MF Prices --- I Should be Happy but not

 
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kauai82

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Since: Jul 21, 2004
Posts: 29



(Msg. 1) Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2004 9:05 pm
Post subject: Used MF Prices --- I Should be Happy but not
Archived from groups: rec>photo>equipment>medium-format (more info?)

I have been using and learning about MF now for about five years. I started
out with a Seagull and after reading about them and their limitations I sold
it and in the past few years I have picked up a Mamiya 645 with a couple of
extra lenses, A Yashica D with the a Yashinon lens, A very nice Agfa 6X6
with a Solinar lens folder that I had reconditioned with new bellows and
takes great pictures. I also own a Canon 7n 35mm camera and a Digital Rebel
300 that my wife bought me for Christmas last year. This is not meant to be
a thread on digital vs. MF. I use both and I like to use the histogram on
the Digital Rebel to give me a better idea on exposure for my MF pictures,
especially sunrises and pictures of mountains with snow on them. I take
mainly landscapes. I have been watching for years the prices of MF used
equipment fall 30-50% on ebay and KEH. Mamiya zoom lenses are now with in my
reach to purchase for my M645. I should be happy about this , but I am
wondering how long Fuji and Kodak will continue to make 120 film.
I still love MF and want to keep using film. I have a Epson 2450 (I know
it old, but it works) and can scan my slides and can have them printed or
blown up locally. I just purchased a 35mm slide scanner so I do the same as
the local photo shops don't want to take the time to set up their mini labs
to scan 35mm slides correctly. I have a lot of money invested in MF and am
thinking about a few more purchases. Yet, if I can not get the 120 film in a
few years it will be a waste to buy more lenses or another camera (been
thinking about a Fuji GA645) . Looks like Kodak has stopped all research on
developing new film. Where is Fuji at ? I have heard many times that there
will always be film made, but I am wondering at what price ? If the demand
goes down these companies must make a profit. Bronica just stopped making
most of their MF cameras. Does anyone know what the "official" or public
statements that film companies have make on there continued support of 120
(or 220) film. Will Agfa photo (just spun off from the main company in a
management buyout) continue to make 120 film ? Sorry for the long post, but
I still want to be shooting film ten years from now. Any feedback would be
appreciated . Matt

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user583

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Since: Sep 24, 2004
Posts: 147



(Msg. 2) Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2004 9:05 pm
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"MATT WILLIAMS" wrote in message

 > [...]
 > I still love MF and want to keep using film.
 > [...] Yet, if I can not get the 120 film in a few years it will be a waste
 > to buy more [...]

So your love of film is conditional, eh? Think of how many pictures you can
make in a few years and be happy.

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moat

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Since: Jun 04, 2004
Posts: 1156



(Msg. 3) Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2004 9:05 pm
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MATT WILLIAMS wrote:

 > I have been using and learning about MF now for about five years. I started
 > out with a Seagull and after reading about them and their limitations I sold
 > it and in the past few years I have picked up a Mamiya 645 with a couple of
 > extra lenses, A Yashica D with the a Yashinon lens, A very nice Agfa 6X6
 > with a Solinar lens folder that I had reconditioned with new bellows and
 > takes great pictures. I also own a Canon 7n 35mm camera and a Digital Rebel
 > 300 that my wife bought me for Christmas last year. This is not meant to be
 > a thread on digital vs. MF. I use both and I like to use the histogram on
 > the Digital Rebel to give me a better idea on exposure for my MF pictures,
 > especially sunrises and pictures of mountains with snow on them. I take
 > mainly landscapes. I have been watching for years the prices of MF used
 > equipment fall 30-50% on ebay and KEH.

Check EBAY prices on 11 MP and 12 MP digital backs for medium format cameras.
Many in the 24 mm by 36 mm or even some 37 mm square CCD digital backs are
around the $2000 price level now. These backs offer active cooling to greatly
minimize noise, and many are also capable of four shot and sixteen shot modes.

 > Mamiya zoom lenses are now with in my
 > reach to purchase for my M645. I should be happy about this , but I am
 > wondering how long Fuji and Kodak will continue to make 120 film.

Since 620 and 127 film are still available, and some other really odd sizes are
still available, I would imagine that 120 film should not be a problem. As for
Fuji and Kodak, I would expect future film from Kodak to come mainly from Lucky
Film in China, and that Fuji might adopt a similar strategy. Anyway, going with
what everyone else is posting, I would guess that 20 years should be fairly
accurate (Kodak and Fuji), with smaller companies probably never stopping
production.

 >
 > I still love MF and want to keep using film. I have a Epson 2450 (I know
 > it old, but it works) and can scan my slides and can have them printed or
 > blown up locally. I just purchased a 35mm slide scanner so I do the same as
 > the local photo shops don't want to take the time to set up their mini labs
 > to scan 35mm slides correctly. I have a lot of money invested in MF and am
 > thinking about a few more purchases. Yet, if I can not get the 120 film in a
 > few years it will be a waste to buy more lenses or another camera (been
 > thinking about a Fuji GA645) .

You might need to mail order your films in the near future, and then
refrigerate them until use. While that is not as convenient as just a short
trip to the store, I think mail order is becoming the norm. You might also
consider getting more into systems with removable backs, so you could get a
used digital back in the future.

 > Looks like Kodak has stopped all research on
 > developing new film.

Wrong, only "consumer" films. Their professional films continue to be
developed, and there should be at least one new release next year.

 > Where is Fuji at ? I have heard many times that there
 > will always be film made, but I am wondering at what price ?

In theory, moving production to China, or other locations, might save some
cost. However, competition will really drive costs, so as long as neither Kodak
nor Fuji have a monopoly, prices should be even with inflation. There has been
some speculation on Wallstreet that film prices might see a sudden drop in the
near future to gain back market share, or volume; though this might not happen.

 > If the demand
 > goes down these companies must make a profit.

Tough to find good figures on profits, though the recent public documents
provided by AGFA indicate that all film and photo finishing products generate
around 40% to 45% profits. Compared to most other products, especially
electronics, that is quite good, and leaves room to reduce prices and retain
some profits. I would also imagine that Fuji and Kodak might be more efficient
than AGFA, and their profits might be better with film and photo finishing
products. In other words, a 1/3 or 1/2 price reduction on film would still
generate a profit for those companies . . . I honestly cannot think of any
other product that could fit such a price reduction and still generate profits.

 > Bronica just stopped making
 > most of their MF cameras.

Tamron announced only the RF645 will continue, and all SLR Bronica cameras will
only have new parts and service for the next seven years (required by law).
While it might not be a good idea to buy a Bronica, if that worries you, the
reality is that your AGFA folder is even older, and can still be repaired. You
might actually look at some Bronica products used for some large discounted
prices. In the longer term, the loss of Bronica competition will make it easier
on the other new medium format products still being sold.

 > Does anyone know what the "official" or public
 > statements that film companies have make on there continued support of 120
 > (or 220) film.

Mostly, it seems that 220 film has been a lower volume that 120, with some 200
films being discontinued. If Kodak and Fuji abandon poorer selling emulsions,
there might be replacements from Eastern European companies, though that is
more of a wait and see approach. Mostly, announcements from Kodak could happen
each quarter, while Fuji tends to announce mostly on an annual basis. Check
investor information on either company to see forward looking statements.

 > Will Agfa photo (just spun off from the main company in a
 > management buyout) continue to make 120 film ?

The initial indication is that they will continue. The only rumour I have heard
is that Scala might be discontinued, though that has been stated in many places
for a few years.

 > Sorry for the long post, but
 > I still want to be shooting film ten years from now. Any feedback would be
 > appreciated . Matt

A worse case scenario is that the major film companies see more demand for
lower ISO films (either 50, 64, 100, 125, 160 and 200), and light demand for
high ISO films (320 to 400, and above). The theory behind that is those who
stay with film would do so because of the perceived quality, a judgement better
made on slower films than faster emulsions. You might see some high speed films
become unavailable in 120, and fewer choices near ISO 400. Mostly, it is too
early to tell, so I would not worry about any of this being possible for
another four years.

Ciao!

Gordon Moat
A G Studio
<http://www.allgstudio.com>
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kauai82

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Since: Jul 21, 2004
Posts: 29



(Msg. 4) Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2004 9:32 pm
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The main point of the post is how long will 120 film be made ? I don't want
to spend a 1000 dollars on equipment that I will not be able to get film for
in two years or so. However, if 120 film has five years or more in
production then at current used prices for MF equipment I could justify in
my mind the expenditure. I am sure that many people in this newsgroup have
the same question. It really has nothing to do with unconditional love of
film but where to put the resources at hand.
"jjs" wrote in message
 >


  > > [...]
  > > I still love MF and want to keep using film.
  > > [...] Yet, if I can not get the 120 film in a few years it will be a
waste
  > > to buy more [...]
 >
 > So your love of film is conditional, eh? Think of how many pictures you
can
 > make in a few years and be happy.
 >
 >
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user583

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Since: Sep 24, 2004
Posts: 147



(Msg. 5) Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2004 9:32 pm
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"MATT WILLIAMS" wrote in message

 > The main point of the post is how long will 120 film be made ? I don't
 > want
 > to spend a 1000 dollars on equipment that I will not be able to get film
 > for
 > in two years or so.

Nobody knows how long it will be available, but my bet is that it will be
around for another twenty years.
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jeremy

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Since: Jun 03, 2004
Posts: 359



(Msg. 6) Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2004 10:01 pm
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"MATT WILLIAMS" wrote in message


 > The main point of the post is how long will 120 film be made ?

120 film must THE longest-lasting size around by now.

When digital imaging approaches the theoretical quality level of 35mm, there
might even be a revival of MF, as serious photographers jump from the
digital/35mm bandwagon to a "better" image of MF. Who knows?

If there is not to be much more development of film emulsions, the logical
progression would be for serious photographers to move up to 120, if they
want to see improvements over 35mm. And, let's be honest, even with all the
improvements in 35mm film over the past 3 decades, one can get much better
quality images by going up to MF--even my old Yashica Model A (TLR) can blow
anything in 35mm away, if stopped down to f/8 and used on a tripod.

I don't think film will die--it just will be manufactured in China. Smile
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bhilton665

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Since: Jun 05, 2004
Posts: 1111



(Msg. 7) Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2004 10:11 pm
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 >The main point of the post is how long will 120 film be made ? I don't want
 >to spend a 1000 dollars on equipment that I will not be able to get film for
 >in two years or so. However, if 120 film has five years or more in
 >production then at current used prices for MF equipment I could justify in
 >my mind the expenditure.

Pretty sure 120/220 will still be available in 10 years, probably much longer.
There are a LOT of cameras out there that use this film so it won't go away
overnight ... you can always buy a stash and freeze it when (if) Fuji and Kodak
start announcing the cutbacks.
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user583

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Since: Sep 24, 2004
Posts: 147



(Msg. 8) Posted: Thu Oct 14, 2004 12:40 pm
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"Gordon Moat" wrote in message


 > [...]
 > In theory, moving production to China, or other locations, might save some
 > cost. However, competition will really drive costs, so as long as neither
 > Kodak
 > nor Fuji have a monopoly, prices should be even with inflation. [...]

That can be true with a publicly held company, but in aggressive markets
private companies, for example some Japanese efforts, they will accept
considerable loss far long than a public American company can sustain and
thereby win the market.
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user671

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Since: Oct 17, 2004
Posts: 28



(Msg. 9) Posted: Thu Oct 14, 2004 3:37 pm
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Gordon Moat wrote:
<...>
 > In theory, moving production to China, or other locations, might save some
 > cost.

That won't help. The main cost is due to distribution, not manufacture.

<...>
 > A worse case scenario is that the major film companies see more demand for
 > lower ISO films (either 50, 64, 100, 125, 160 and 200), and light demand for
 > high ISO films (320 to 400, and above).

I doubt that. In terms of performance, the fast emulsions are still far
ahead the digital detectors that get noisy above ISO400. And all
disposable cameras are loaded with ISO400 or faster.

-- Lassi
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fotocord

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Since: Jun 03, 2004
Posts: 1869



(Msg. 10) Posted: Thu Oct 14, 2004 10:45 pm
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MATT WILLIAMS wrote:

 > The main point of the post is how long will 120 film be made ? I don't
 > want to spend a 1000 dollars on equipment that I will not be able to get
 > film for
 > in two years or so.

Think of it this way, in 5 years your digital rebel will be worth maybe $100
so what's the difference? And no 120 film isn't going to disappear in 2
years.
--

Stacey
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user583

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Since: Sep 24, 2004
Posts: 147



(Msg. 11) Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2004 12:03 pm
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"Stacey" wrote in message

 > MATT WILLIAMS wrote:
 >
  >> The main point of the post is how long will 120 film be made ? I don't
  >> want to spend a 1000 dollars on equipment that I will not be able to get
  >> film for
  >> in two years or so.
 >
 > Think of it this way, in 5 years your digital rebel will be worth maybe
 > $100
 > so what's the difference? And no 120 film isn't going to disappear in 2
 > years.

CORRECT! And I'll bet that digital Rebel will more likely be $25. There
will be bins of digital cameras at Goodwill just like there are bins of old
point-n-shoots now... if they will even take them!
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fotocord

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Since: Jun 03, 2004
Posts: 1869



(Msg. 12) Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2004 11:39 pm
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jjs wrote:



  >> MATT WILLIAMS wrote:
  >>
   >>> The main point of the post is how long will 120 film be made ? I don't
   >>> want to spend a 1000 dollars on equipment that I will not be able to get
   >>> film for
   >>> in two years or so.
  >>
  >> Think of it this way, in 5 years your digital rebel will be worth maybe
  >> $100
  >> so what's the difference? And no 120 film isn't going to disappear in 2
  >> years.
 >
 > CORRECT! And I'll bet that digital Rebel will more likely be $25. There
 > will be bins of digital cameras at Goodwill just like there are bins of
 > old point-n-shoots now... if they will even take them!


Example, I just picked up a new old stock JVC mini DV video camera, 2 years
old originally MSRP was $1128, street price was $875, I just paid $165. Now
it's considered "Old school" and about 10% it's original price.
--

Stacey
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kauai82

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Since: Jul 21, 2004
Posts: 29



(Msg. 13) Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:21 am
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Possibly true, however the replacement cameras that these future people will
be buying will be Digital not film based. As an example I am selling an old
lap top from six years ago for around $80 dollars on ebay. Unit works fine.
It cost my brother-in-law $2500 dollars new. He got a lot of use for work
and pleasure out of the unit. If my drebel will be worth only $25 dollars in
a few years and I got a lot of pleasure and use out of the unit then that is
okay. My Mamiya M645 with 80mm lens that I bought five years ago for $450
dollars is now worth about $250 to $275. It does not diminish my happiness
with buying the camera and all of the great shots (and some not so great)
that I have taken and will in the future take. The only fear I have is being
able to get film for it in the next decade. I remember when CD's first came
out. It was thought that the vinyl LP would take about five to six years to
be replaced. It took less than two years and most companies stopped making
records. I still own over 2500 albums. I sell and buy used on ebay all the
time. However, I have not bought a new release LP in over fifteen years.
There are few produced, but they are very expensive and not many different
titles. I just don't want my choices of film I can purchase diminished
greatly in the coming years.
"jjs" wrote in message


  > > MATT WILLIAMS wrote:
  > >
   > >> The main point of the post is how long will 120 film be made ? I don't
   > >> want to spend a 1000 dollars on equipment that I will not be able to
get
   > >> film for
   > >> in two years or so.
  > >
  > > Think of it this way, in 5 years your digital rebel will be worth maybe
  > > $100
  > > so what's the difference? And no 120 film isn't going to disappear in 2
  > > years.
 >
 > CORRECT! And I'll bet that digital Rebel will more likely be $25. There
 > will be bins of digital cameras at Goodwill just like there are bins of
old
 > point-n-shoots now... if they will even take them!
 >
 >
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neil1

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Since: Mar 06, 2004
Posts: 335



(Msg. 14) Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2004 5:08 pm
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Recently, MATT WILLIAMS posted:
(much snipped)
 > Possibly true, however the replacement cameras that these future
 > people will be buying will be Digital not film based.
[...]

That presumes a lot about the place that digital cameras occupy in the
photographic world. As has been pointed out, photography hasn't eliminated
any other artform in well over a century of use. While we *presume* that
digital quality will just continue to increase until it can really replace
all that MF offers, the market seems to disagree. The mass market digicam
products have stopped increasing the resolution at around 5 mp, and
performance is being limited to around 400 ISO and below. Those
specifications appear to be a "sweet spot" in what people want to buy, so
the contest now is to see who can deliver the best product at the lowest
cost rather than who can do better.

 > I just don't want my choices of film I can purchase diminished
 > greatly in the coming years.
[...]

I suspect that your concern isn't over the number of choices of MF film,
as there are many more than you'd probably be willing to consider. Too
many for the market to support. Niche products are likely to be
discontinued as volume drops below a practical minimum. For example, if
one can manufacture more product in a short run than can be sold over the
course of years, only an irresponsible management would keep making it.
The longer you keep an inventory, the less profitable the product, among
other practicalities.

Regards,

Neil
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bhilton665

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Since: Jun 05, 2004
Posts: 1111



(Msg. 15) Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2004 6:22 pm
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 >While we *presume* that
 >digital quality will just continue to increase until it can really replace
 >all that MF offers, the market seems to disagree. The mass market digicam
 >products have stopped increasing the resolution at around 5 mp, and
 >performance is being limited to around 400 ISO and below.

These are the consumer grade models though ... the digital cameras that serious
photographers are comparing to medium format are the dSLR Kodak 14 (14 Mpixels)
and the Canon 1Ds (11 Mpixels), totally different animals than the 5 Mpix
point-and-shoots.

 >Those
 >specifications appear to be a "sweet spot" in what people want to buy, so
 >the contest now is to see who can deliver the best product at the lowest
 >cost rather than who can do better.

You're right about the "sweet spot" for consumers, but the competition
continues at the high end ... Nikon recently announced a 12.4 Mpixel model out
early next year and Canon announced the 16 Mpixel 1Ds Mark II which will ship
in a month or so. Oly is bringing out an 8 Mpix 4/3 model and since the sensor
is about 1/4 the size of the full-frame models you can extrapolate that
full-frame models from Canon or Kodak/Nikon could offer 30 Mpixels at the same
pixel pitch, so we're not done by a long shot.

All of these dSLRs with pixel counts over 11 Mpix should beat 35 mm film (I
know my 1Ds does) and are starting to encroach on MF's turf. I've been testing
my 1Ds against a 645 and a 6x7, shooting the same scenes and making 16x20"
prints for comparison and while Velvia has better colors and a wider gamut and
I feel I get better big landscape prints from scanned film there's no doubt
that the digital files are good enough for many pro applications like product
shots (catalogs, etc) or portraits (where you don't really WANT a wide,
saturated color gamut). I think MF film is still better for landscapes but
anyone with a busy studio shooting many hundreds of rolls of film would likely
find digital appealing and that's where the high volume film sales come from.

Bill
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